International Macroeconomics by
An essential introduction to one of the most timely and important subjects in economics International Macroeconomics presents a rigorous and theoretically elegant treatment of real-world international macroeconomic problems, incorporating the latest economic research while maintaining a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach. This one-of-a-kind textbook introduces a basic model and applies it to fundamental questions in international economics, including the determinants of the current account in small and large economies, processes of adjustment to shocks, the determinants of the real exchange rate, the role of fixed and flexible exchange rates in models with nominal rigidities, and interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. The book confronts theoretical predictions using actual data, highlighting both the power and limits of given theories and encouraging critical thinking. Provides a rigorous and elegant treatment of fundamental questions in international macroeconomics Brings undergraduate and master's instruction in line with modern economic research Follows a microfounded, optimizing, and dynamic general equilibrium approach Addresses fundamental questions in international economics, such as the role of capital controls in the presence of financial frictions and balance-of-payments crises Uses real-world data to test the predictions of theoretical models Features a wealth of exercises at the end of each chapter that challenge students to hone their theoretical skills and scrutinize the empirical relevance of models Accompanied by a website with lecture slides for every chapter
Open Economy Macroeconomics by
A cutting-edge graduate-level textbook on the macroeconomics of international trade Combining theoretical models and data in ways unimaginable just a few years ago, open economy macroeconomics has experienced enormous growth over the past several decades. This rigorous and self-contained textbook brings graduate students, scholars, and policymakers to the research frontier and provides the tools and context necessary for new research and policy proposals. Martín Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé factor in the discipline's latest developments, including major theoretical advances in incorporating financial and nominal frictions into microfounded dynamic models of the open economy, the availability of macro- and microdata for emerging and developed countries, and a revolution in the tools available to simulate and estimate dynamic stochastic models. The authors begin with a canonical general equilibrium model of an open economy and then build levels of complexity through the coverage of important topics such as international business-cycle analysis, financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises, sovereign default, pecuniary externalities, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and the role of nominal rigidities in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy. Based on courses taught at several universities, Open Economy Macroeconomics is an essential resource for students, researchers, and practitioners. Detailed exploration of international business-cycle analysis Coverage of financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises Extensive investigation of nominal rigidities and their role in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy Other topics include fixed exchange-rate regimes, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and sovereign default and debt sustainability Chapters include exercises and replication codes
State-Space Models with Regime Switching by
Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail- decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
The Cointegrated VAR Model by
This valuable text provides a comprehensive introduction to VAR modelling and how it can be applied. In particular, the author focuses on the properties of the Cointegrated VAR model and its implications for macroeconomic inference when data are non-stationary. The text provides a number ofinsights into the links between statistical econometric modelling and economic theory and gives a thorough treatment of identification of the long-run and short-run structure as well as of the common stochastic trends and the impulse response functions, providing in each case illustrations ofapplicability.This book presents the main ingredients of the Copenhagen School of Time-Series Econometrics in a transparent and coherent framework. The distinguishing feature of this school is that econometric theory and applications have been developed in close cooperation. The guiding principle is that goodeconometric work should take econometrics, institutions, and economics seriously. The author uses a single data set throughout most of the book to guide the reader through the econometric theory while also revealing the full implications for the underlying economic model. To test ensure fullunderstanding the book concludes with the introduction of two new data sets to combine readers understanding of econometric theory and economic models, with economic reality.
Econometric Analysis of Panel Data by
This textbook offers a comprehensive introduction to panel data econometrics, an area that has enjoyed considerable growth over the last two decades. Micro and Macro panels are becoming increasingly available, and methods for dealing with these types of data are in high demand among practitioners. Software programs have fostered this growth, including freely available programs in R and numerous user-written programs in both Stata and EViews. Written by one of the world's leading researchers and authors in the field, Econometric Analysis of Panel Data has established itself as the leading textbook for graduate and postgraduate courses on panel data. It provides up-to-date coverage of basic panel data techniques, illustrated with real economic applications and datasets, which are available at the book's website on springer.com. This new sixth edition has been fully revised and updated, and includes new material on dynamic panels, limited dependent variables and nonstationary panels, as well as spatial panel data. The author also provides empirical illustrations and examples using Stata and EViews. "This is a definitive book written by one of the architects of modern, panel data econometrics. It provides both a practical introduction to the subject matter, as well as a thorough discussion of the underlying statistical principles without taxing the reader too greatly." Professor Kajal Lahiri, State University of New York, Albany, USA. "This book is the most comprehensive work available on panel data. It is written by one of the leading contributors to the field, and is notable for its encyclopaedic coverage and its clarity of exposition. It is useful to theorists and to people doing applied work using panel data. It is valuable as a text for a course in panel data, as a supplementary text for more general courses in econometrics, and as a reference." Professor Peter Schmidt, Michigan State University, USA. "Panel data econometrics is in its ascendancy, combining the power of cross section averaging with all the subtleties of temporal and spatial dependence. Badi Baltagi provides a remarkable roadmap of this fascinating interface of econometric method, enticing the novitiate with technical gentleness, the expert with comprehensive coverage and the practitioner with many empirical applications." Professor Peter C. B. Phillips, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, USA.
Econometrics by
This textbook teaches some of the basic econometric methods and the underlying assumptions behind them. It also includes a simple and concise treatment of more advanced topics in spatial correlation, panel data, limited dependent variables, regression diagnostics, specification testing and time series analysis. Each chapter has a set of theoretical exercises as well as empirical illustrations using real economic applications. These empirical exercises usually replicate a published article using Stata, Eviews as well as SAS. This new sixth edition has been fully revised and updated, and includes new material on limited dependent variables and panel data as well as revision of basic topics like heteroskedasticity, endogeneity, over-identification and specification testing. The author also provides more exercises and empirical examples based on published economic applications.
Introduction to Econometrics by
Taking a modern approach to the subject, Introduction to Econometrics provides students with a solid grounding in econometrics, striving to make complex concepts accessible and maintaining a level appropriate for students with or without a mathematical background.
Econometric Analysis by
For first-year graduate courses in Econometrics for Social Scientists. Bridging the gap between social science studies and econometric analysis Designed to bridge the gap between social science studies and field-econometrics, Econometric Analysis, 8th Edition presents this ever-growing area at an accessible level. The book first introduces readers to basic techniques, a rich variety of models, and underlying theory that is easy to put into practice. It then presents readers with a sufficient theoretical background to understand advanced techniques and to recognize new variants of established models. This focus, along with hundreds of worked numerical examples, ensures that readers can apply the theory to real-world application and are prepared to be successful economists in the field.
Econometrics by
Hayashi's Econometrics promises to be the next great synthesis of modern econometrics. It introduces first year Ph.D. students to standard graduate econometrics material from a modern perspective. It covers all the standard material necessary for understanding the principal techniques of econometrics from ordinary least squares through cointegration. The book is also distinctive in developing both time-series and cross-section analysis fully, giving the reader a unified framework for understanding and integrating results. Econometrics has many useful features and covers all the important topics in econometrics in a succinct manner. All the estimation techniques that could possibly be taught in a first-year graduate course, except maximum likelihood, are treated as special cases of GMM (generalized methods of moments). Maximum likelihood estimators for a variety of models (such as probit and tobit) are collected in a separate chapter. This arrangement enables students to learn various estimation techniques in an efficient manner. Eight of the ten chapters include a serious empirical application drawn from labor economics, industrial organization, domestic and international finance, and macroeconomics. These empirical exercises at the end of each chapter provide students a hands-on experience applying the techniques covered in the chapter. The exposition is rigorous yet accessible to students who have a working knowledge of very basic linear algebra and probability theory. All the results are stated as propositions, so that students can see the points of the discussion and also the conditions under which those results hold. Most propositions are proved in the text. For those who intend to write a thesis on applied topics, the empirical applications of the book are a good way to learn how to conduct empirical research. For the theoretically inclined, the no-compromise treatment of the basic techniques is a good preparation for more advanced theory courses.
Principles of Econometrics by
Principles of Econometrics, Fifth Edition, is an introductory book for undergraduate students in economics and finance, as well as first-year graduate students in a variety of fields that include economics, finance, accounting, marketing, public policy, sociology, law, and political science. Students will gain a working knowledge of basic econometrics so they can apply modeling, estimation, inference, and forecasting techniques when working with real-world economic problems. Readers will also gain an understanding of econometrics that allows them to critically evaluate the results of others' economic research and modeling, and that will serve as a foundation for further study of the field. This new edition of the highly-regarded econometrics text includes major revisions that both reorganize the content and present students with plentiful opportunities to practice what they have read in the form of chapter-end exercises.
Econometric Methods by
Provides a study of econometric theory and practice for undergraduate or graduate study. This work assumes that students have taken a basic course in statistic. It provides an appendix on basic statistical theory for those who may need a refresher. It also includes a review of relevant topics in matrix algebra and a data disk.
Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts by
This text aims to help students understand the art of model building, what type of model to build, building the appropriate model, testing it statistically and applying the model to practical problems in forecasting and analysis. Although statistics is a prerequisite to use the text effectively, calculus is not required. This edition includes new material on descriptive statistics, a new chapter on non-linear and maximum likelihood estimation with a section on ARCH and GARCH models and a new test for heterosedasticity and use of panel data.
Introduction to econometrics by
Designed for a first course in undergraduate and introductory econometrics, this text reflects modern theory and practice. With riveting empirical applications as well as real-world examples and data integrated into the development of the theory, the authors ensure that students grasp the relevance of econometrics by providing an effective treatment of the substantive findings of the resulting empirical analysis. New to this edition : Chapter on "Big Data" and machine learning methods ; Parallel treatment of prediction and causal inference using regression ; Brand new general interest boxes, like "The distribution of adulthood earnings in the United Kingdom by Childhood Socioeconomic Circumstances" and "Conditional cash transfers in Rural Mexico to increase school enrollment," that focus on contemporary and global choice of topics ; Coverage of realized volatility as well as autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity ; Concept exercises in MyLab that focus on core concepts and economic interpretations.
Using Econometrics by
For courses in Econometrics. A Clear, Practical Introduction to Econometrics Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide offers readers an innovative introduction to elementary econometrics. Through real-world examples and exercises, the book covers the topic of single-equation linear regression analysis in an easily understandable format. The Seventh Edition is appropriate for all levels: beginner econometric readers, regression users seeking a refresher, and experienced practitioners who want a convenient reference. Praised as one of the most important texts in the last 30 years, the book retains its clarity and practicality in previous editions with a number of substantial improvements throughout.
A Guide to Modern Econometrics by
A Guide to Modern Econometrics, 5th Edition has become established as a highly successful textbook. It serves as a guide to alternative techniques in econometrics with an emphasis on intuition and the practical implementation of these approaches. This fifth edition builds upon the success of its predecessors. The text has been carefully checked and updated, taking into account recent developments and insights. It includes new material on causal inference, the use and limitation of p-values, instrumental variables estimation and its implementation, regression discontinuity design, standardized coefficients, and the presentation of estimation results.
Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, Second Edition by
The second edition of a comprehensive state-of-the-art graduate level text on microeconometric methods, substantially revised and updated.The second edition of this acclaimed graduate text provides a unified treatment of two methods used in contemporary econometric research, cross section and data panel methods. By focusing on assumptions that can be given behavioral content, the book maintains an appropriate level of rigor while emphasizing intuitive thinking. The analysis covers both linear and nonlinear models, including models with dynamics and/or individual heterogeneity. In addition to general estimation frameworks (particular methods of moments and maximum likelihood), specific linear and nonlinear methods are covered in detail, including probit and logit models and their multivariate, Tobit models, models for count data, censored and missing data schemes, causal (or treatment) effects, and duration analysis. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data was the first graduate econometrics text to focus on microeconomic data structures, allowing assumptions to be separated into population and sampling assumptions. This second edition has been substantially updated and revised. Improvements include a broader class of models for missing data problems; more detailed treatment of cluster problems, an important topic for empirical researchers; expanded discussion of "generalized instrumental variables" (GIV) estimation; new coverage (based on the author's own recent research) of inverse probability weighting; a more complete framework for estimating treatment effects with panel data, and a firmly established link between econometric approaches to nonlinear panel data and the "generalized estimating equation" literature popular in statistics and other fields. New attention is given to explaining when particular econometric methods can be applied; the goal is not only to tell readers what does work, but why certain "obvious" procedures do not. The numerous included exercises, both theoretical and computer-based, allow the reader to extend methods covered in the text and discover new insights.
Introductory Econometrics by
Gain an understanding of how econometrics can answer today's questions in business, policy evaluation and forecasting with Wooldridge's INTRODUCTORY ECONOMETRICS: A MODERN APPROACH, 7E. Unlike traditional texts, this book's practical, yet professional, approach demonstrates how econometrics has moved beyond a set of abstract tools to become genuinely useful for answering questions across a variety of disciplines.The author has organized the book's presentation around the type of data being analyzed with a systematic approach that only introduces assumptions as they are needed. This makes the material easier to understand and, ultimately, leads to better econometric practices. Packed with relevant applications, the text incorporates more than 100 data sets in different formats. Updates introduce the latest developments in the field, including the recent advances in the so-called "causal effects" or "treatment effects," to provide a complete understanding of the impact and importance of econometrics today.
Bayesian Econometrics by
Bayesian Econometrics introduces the reader to the use of Bayesian methods in the field of econometrics at the advanced undergraduate or graduate level. The book is self-contained and does not require that readers have previous training in econometrics. The focus is on models used by applied economists and the computational techniques necessary to implement Bayesian methods when doing empirical work. The book includes numerous empirical examples and the website associated with it contains data sets and computer programs to help the student develop the computational skills of modern Bayesian econometrics.
Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting by
With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
Econometric Modelling with Time Series by
This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalised method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.
Analysis of Financial Time Series by
This book provides a broad, mature, and systematic introduction to current financial econometric models and their applications to modeling and prediction of financial time series data. It utilizes real-world examples and real financial data throughout the book to apply the models and methods described. The author begins with basic characteristics of financial time series data before covering three main topics: Analysis and application of univariate financial time series The return series of multiple assets Bayesian inference in finance methods Key features of the new edition include additional coverage of modern day topics such as arbitrage, pair trading, realized volatility, and credit risk modeling; a smooth transition from S-Plus to R; and expanded empirical financial data sets. The overall objective of the book is to provide some knowledge of financial time series, introduce some statistical tools useful for analyzing these series and gain experience in financial applications of various econometric methods.
Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting by
This book is aimed at the reader who wishes to gain a working knowledge of time series and forecasting methods as applied to economics, engineering and the natural and social sciences. It assumes knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra and elementary statistics. This third edition contains detailed instructions for the use of the professional version of the Windows-based computer package ITSM2000, now available as a free download from the Springer Extras website. The logic and tools of time series model-building are developed in detail. Numerous exercises are included and the software can be used to analyze and forecast data sets of the user's own choosing. The book can also be used in conjunction with other time series packages such as those included in R. The programs in ITSM2000 however are menu-driven and can be used with minimal investment of time in the computational details. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Many additional special topics are also covered. New to this edition: A chapter devoted to Financial Time Series Introductions to Brownian motion, Lévy processes and Itô calculus An expanded section on continuous-time ARMA processes
An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis by
Providing a practical introduction to state space methods as applied to unobserved components time series models, also known as structural time series models, this book introduces time series analysis using state space methodology to readers who are neither familiar with time series analysis,nor with state space methods. The only background required in order to understand the material presented in the book is a basic knowledge of classical linear regression models, of which a brief review is provided to refresh the reader's knowledge. Also, a few sections assume familiarity with matrixalgebra, however, these sections may be skipped without losing the flow of the exposition.The book offers a step by step approach to the analysis of the salient features in time series such as the trend, seasonal, and irregular components. Practical problems such as forecasting and missing values are treated in some detail. This useful book will appeal to practitioners and researcherswho use time series on a daily basis in areas such as the social sciences, quantitative history, biology and medicine. It also serves as an accompanying textbook for a basic time series course in econometrics and statistics, typically at an advanced undergraduate level or graduate level.
Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods by
This new edition updates Durbin and Koopman's important text on the state space approach to time series analysis. The distinguishing feature of state space time series models is that observations are regarded as made up of distinct components such as trend, seasonal, regression elements anddisturbance terms, each of which is modelled separately. The techniques that emerge from this approach are very flexible and are capable of handling a much wider range of problems than the main analytical system currently in use for time series analysis, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA system. Additions tothis second edition include the filtering of nonlinear and non-Gaussian series.Part I of the book obtains the mean and variance of the state, of a variable intended to measure the effect of an interaction and of regression coefficients, in terms of the observations.Part II extends the treatment to nonlinear and non-normal models. For these, analytical solutions are not available so methods are based on simulation.
Time Series Analysis by
The last decade has brought dramatic changes in the way that researchers analyze economic and financial time series. This book synthesizes these recent advances and makes them accessible to first-year graduate students. James Hamilton provides the first adequate text-book treatments of important innovations such as vector autoregressions, generalized method of moments, the economic and statistical consequences of unit roots, time-varying variances, and nonlinear time series models. In addition, he presents basic tools for analyzing dynamic systems (including linear representations, autocovariance generating functions, spectral analysis, and the Kalman filter) in a way that integrates economic theory with the practical difficulties of analyzing and interpreting real-world data. Time Series Analysis fills an important need for a textbook that integrates economic theory, econometrics, and new results. The book is intended to provide students and researchers with a self-contained survey of time series analysis. It starts from first principles and should be readily accessible to any beginning graduate student, while it is also intended to serve as a reference book for researchers.
Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter by
In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.
New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis by
This is the new and totally revised edition of Lütkepohl's classic 1991 work. It provides a detailed introduction to the main steps of analyzing multiple time series, model specification, estimation, model checking, and for using the models for economic analysis and forecasting. The book now includes new chapters on cointegration analysis, structural vector autoregressions, cointegrated VARMA processes and multivariate ARCH models. The book bridges the gap to the difficult technical literature on the topic. It is accessible to graduate students in business and economics. In addition, multiple time series courses in other fields such as statistics and engineering may be based on it.
Forecasting by
This text aims to offer a modern, comprehensive survey of the principles and applications of forecasting in the world of commerce. It includes the theory necessary for a statistics course, as well as examples, applications and cases drawn from a variety of sources. Modern theories such as state space, bootstrapping, Box-Jenkins, ARIMA intervention analysis and modern data analytic techniques are covered and a data disk with a forecasting program is included. The text gives comprehensive coverage of methods of forecasting, presenting real data sets, cases and problems. Boxed real applications are provided and the data disk contains a time series database with 300 actual time series included. Continuing minicases illustrate actual time series applications in an integrative forecasting process format, with a summary table providing an overall perspective of the forecasting process.
Forecasting by
Known from its last editions as the "Bible of Forecasting", the third edition of this authoritative text has adopted a new approach-one that is as new as the latest trends in the field: "Explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future". In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the fitting of models to historical data. Inside, readers will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And readers will develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.
Economic Growth by
This is the third corrected and extended edition of a book on deterministic and stochastic Growth Theory and the computational methods needed to produce numerical solutions. Exogenous and endogenous growth, non-monetary and monetary models are thoroughly reviewed. Special attention is paid to the use of these models for fiscal and monetary policy analysis. Models under modern theories of the Business Cycle, New Keynesian Macroeconomics, and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models, can be all considered as special cases of economic growth models, and they can be analyzed by the theoretical and numerical procedures provided in the textbook. Analytical discussions are presented in full detail. The book is self-contained and it is designed so that the student advances in the theoretical and the computational issues in parallel. Spreadsheets are used to solve simple examples. Matlab files are provided on an accompanying website to illustrate theoretical results from all chapters as well as to simulate the effects of economic policy interventions. The logical structure of these program files is described in "Numerical exercise"-type of sections, where the output of these programs is also interpreted. The third edition corrects a few typographical errors, includes two new and original chapters on frequentist and Bayesian estimation, and improves some notation.
The Economics of Education by
The Economics of Education: A Comprehensive Overview, Second Edition, offers a comprehensive and current overview of the field of that is broadly accessible economists, researchers and students. This new edition revises the original 50 authoritative articles and adds Developed (US and European) and Developing Country perspectives, reflecting the differences in institutional structures that help to shape teacher labor markets and the effect of competition on student outcomes.
Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models by
This text is concerned with Bayesian learning, inference and forecasting in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models and their uses in forecasting and time series analysis. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting and time - ries analysis have been developed extensively during the last thirty years. Thisdevelopmenthasinvolvedthoroughinvestigationofmathematicaland statistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with applications in a variety of areas in commercial, industrial, scienti?c, and socio-economic ?elds. Much of the technical - velopment has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners and applied researchers. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, presented and illustrated here. In writing and revising this book, our primary goals have been to present a reasonably comprehensive view of Bayesian ideas and methods in m- elling and forecasting, particularly to provide a solid reference source for advanced university students and research workers.
